WASHINGTON – Talk to about any Democratic voter these days, and they’re already nervous about 2024.
At some point the conversation usually turns to this: How can Donald Trump – a twice-impeached, four-times indicted former president who tried to overturn the 2020 election and is campaigning on retribution – be tied, or even leading, Joe Biden in the 2024 election?
A slew of recent head-to-head polls in a hypothetical Biden-Trump rematch show the incumbent struggling against his Republican predecessor 13 months away from the presidential election in November 2024. Despite his well-documented legal troubles and increasingly violent rhetoric, Trump – for now – appears to be running away with the Republican nomination. And he’s running neck-and-neck with Biden.
Trump leads Biden by 1.1 percentage points nationally, 45.2%-44.1%, in Real Clear Politics’ average of polls. Just as concerning for Biden are polls showing voters remain concerned about his job performance, handling of the economy, his age and even whether he should run again.
Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic pollster, downplayed cause for concern for Biden and Democrats, arguing the polls reflect what should have been clear already: the country is deeply polarized and the 2024 election will be close even with Trump as the Republican nominee.
“I have no idea why any Democrat, or anybody in the country, would think that any poll would be any different than life and reality,” Pollock said. “And life and reality right now is that we have an incredibly divided country that we know the election is going to be close no matter what.”
He said anyone who thought that Trump’s legal issues would mean an easy race for Biden and Democrats are “just living in fantasy land.”
But pollster Frank Luntz said Democrats are right to panic.
“On a 0 to 10 scale, it’s an 11,” Luntz said. “With Donald Trump indicted so many times and in such legal trouble, for Joe Biden to be only tied, and in some polls trailing, is a shock to the system and they should be thankful that polling exists.”
Luntz, who conducts regular focus groups with Republican primary voters, called Trump’s polling against Biden “a nuclear red light flashing,” arguing any other candidate with his same legal troubles would be out of the race.
“It says that voters are willing to forgive Trump for everything and it says voters are not willing to forgive Biden for anything,” Luntz said. “What they cannot change, and will be getting increasingly worse, is the issue of Joe Biden’s age.”
Biden, whose approval rating remains at around 40%, has started to zero in on Trump as the likely Republican nominee, telling supporters at a New York fundraiser in September that “it looks like he is destined to be the nominee again.”
Biden is campaigning on a domestic manufacturing boom under his presidency that Trump promised but never delivered, among other legislative achievements. In a speech last week in Arizona, Biden worked to make democracy another centerpiece of his 2024 campaign, warning of “MAGA extremists” led by Trump who disregard the Constitution and democratic norms.
Biden campaign advisers say it is too early for an accurate snapshot of a hypothetical matchup against Trump, arguing the race will crystalize for votes as a clear contrast between the “chaos” of Trump versus Biden’s record of accomplishments as the election gets closer.
To counter the polls, the Biden campaign is pointing to a string of 2023 special elections – including off-year state legislative and mayoral races – in which Democrats outperformed Republicans by about 10 percentage points over historic trends.
“The best predictor of voting behavior is voting behavior,” one Biden campaign adviser said.
Biden allies also believe the fight over abortion rights following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade will motivate voters in 2024. Abortion-rights advocates have won all seven statewide elections with abortion on the ballot since the court’s decision including in red states such as Kansas and Ohio.
The Biden campaign says it is confident about reassembling its winning 2020 coalition, especially with the polarizing Trump as another motivating factor for Democrats if he’s the Republican nominee.
Still, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said Americans’ concerns about the economy and inflation could be a “deal breaker” and provide a path for Trump if the economy doesn’t improve. That reality, coupled with the fact that Biden’s approval rating remains in the low 40s, should be a “flashing red light” for Democrats, he said.
“It’s a neck-and-neck race right now,” Paleologos said. “And it speaks to President Biden’s weakness right now in terms of the confidence of people in his leadership.”
Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly known as Twitter, @joeygarrison.
How worried should Democrats be about Joe Biden's lackluster … – USA TODAY
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