Stocks rose on Tuesday, picking up momentum throughout the day as new data showed signs of cooling in the labor market ahead of Friday's August jobs report.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 1.45% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 0.85% after US job openings fell below 9 million for the first time since March 2021 and consumer confidence reversed its summer gains. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains, rising about 1.75%.
Tuesday marked the best single-day performance for the S&P 500 since May 5.
Earlier Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller US National Composite home price index increased by 0.7% in June compared with May on a seasonally adjusted basis. That was in line with the 0.7% increase the month before. The index remains just 0.02% off its all-time peak exactly a year ago.
The economic updates are an appetizer for the key PCE inflation and August payrolls reports due Thursday and Friday.
With the question of recession still front of mind for investors, the robustness of that data could sway investors' expectations for more interest-rate rises from the Federal Reserve. The cautious tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole last week has left some unconvinced policymakers won't take more action to cool inflation.
Stocks popped on Tuesday after economic data showed signs of the labor market cooling, intensifying hopes for a “soft landing” ending to the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.45% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped 0.85%, or nearly 300 points. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the indexes, rising roughly 1.75%.
The ongoing double strike in Hollywood hit a stalemate last week after the Writers Guild of America (WGA) slammed the studios’ counterproposal, lamenting the proposal didn’t come close to satisfying the writers’ demands.
The negotiation failure set a sour tone throughout Hollywood as the writers’ strike is about to enter its fifth month while the actors’ strike prepares for month two. Industry watchers say the the “double whammy” work stoppage has already had serious economic implications, as the last writers’ strike demonstrated.
According to estimates from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., the 2007-2008 strike cost the Los Angeles County economy a whopping $2.5 billion.
Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist at the Milken Institute, estimated the current strikes are inching towards a $5 billion-plus national economic hit, upwardly revising his previous estimate of $4 billion. He explained that the work stoppage will impact other businesses besides just production — restaurants, catering companies, trucking agencies, dry cleaning businesses, among many others.
“The main thing we’re really factoring into it is the lost wages,” Klowden told Yahoo Finance Live in an interview on Tuesday. He emphasized it’s not just the industries in California that will be impacted, but also industries in New York, Atlanta, Albuquerque, Pittsburgh, and other production-friendly locations.
On top of lost wages, Klowden said delayed films, like Warner Bros.’ “Dune” sequel, and cancelled programming, like Amazon’s “A League of Their Own,” will also heavily contribute to losses.
“Hollywood’s been very heavily concentrated in terms of production activity, so anybody who does film and TV — Disney is a classic example of that — along with Warner Bros., Universal, and even at this point [Netflix, Amazon, and Apple] they’re all getting affected,” he said. “But we don’t see it as much on their bottom line as we do on the workers.”
Still, that doesn’t mean these companies won’t be hit down the line, Klowden said, warning: “They can put off costs right now. The catch is [as] they delay movies, that means their ability to get the revenue back, to be able to get their expenditures back becomes harder and harder. They forego revenues and they forego any ability to easily snap back out of this strike the longer it goes on.”
Optimism about the Fed nearing the end of its rate hike cycle as the labor market shows signs of better balance sent the Nasdaq (^IXIC) leading the three major indexes higher, while a court ruling boosted the crypocturrency space during Tuesday’s trading session,
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) stock led the Yahoo Finance trending tickers page on Tuesday afternoon. Shares jumped more than 2% as the tech giant debuted a slew of new AI offerings for its Google Cloud and Workspace enterprise platforms. As part of the announcements, Google revealed it will charge $30 per user per month for its AI-powered Duet AI in Workspace.
Cryptocurrencies and stocks tied to crypto all moved higher as a court overruled a prior decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission, paving the way for the first Bitcoin ETF in the US. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose more than 6% while Coinbase (COIN). gained 15% and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) soared nearly 30%.
Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) shares rallied more than 6%, joining a broader tech rally.
Big Lots (BIG) stock gained nearly 30% as it reported better than feared quarterly results despite comparable sales falling nearly 15%.
Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferre reports:
Big Lots posted a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss while warning its shoppers have been “holding back on higher-ticket items, due to concerns about the economy.”
“Our core lower-income customer remains under significant pressure and has limited capacity for higher-ticket discretionary purchases,” Big Lots CEO Bruce Thorn said during the company’s second quarter earnings call on Tuesday.
Comparable sales for the retailer declined 14.6% in the second quarter, less than the 18.1% expected by Wall Street analysts. The company’s adjusted loss per share of $3.24 came in narrower than expectations of $4.11.
In the current quarter, the company expects comp sales to decline by a mid-teens percentage, “modestly improved” from its second quarter results. Big Lots said it is not providing full-year guidance in light of economic uncertainties, but it expects gross margins to increase by around 200 basis points in the current quarter.
“For the past year and a half, we’ve been playing defense as the consumer environment quickly and sharply deteriorated,” Thorn added. “High inflation has disproportionately impacted our lower-income customers who have delayed or pulled back spending on discretionary items, particularly in high-ticket home and seasonal categories, which were already challenged by the post-COVID spend shift away from home categories.”
Big Lots stock has been in decline since reaching an all-time high of $70 per share in March 2021.
Year to date the stock is down 46% as customers opt for services and experiences over goods and spending shifts to lower-margin categories like food and consumables amid high inflation.
Best Buy stock was up more than 5% after reporting a better than expected quarter. But the electronics retailer still flashed some points of concern to worry when it comes to the health of the consumer.
Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:
Best Buy (BBY) is joining its fellow retailers in sending a smoke flare up on the ability of its shoppers to pay their credit card bills.
“We are seeing a more normalized rate compared to 2020,” Best Buy CFO Matt Bilunas told analysts on a conference call Tuesday regarding net credit losses.
Bilunas expressed concern on this trend worsening into 2024, as consumers battle the one-two punch of pesky inflation and higher interest rates. The electronics retailer isn’t alone in dropping a credit card warning.
Macy’s (M) said last week that its second quarter credit card sales tanked 36% from the prior year to $150 million. The culprit: Bloated balances on Macy’s Citibank-powered credit card have been met with a rising interest-rate environment.
In turn, cash-strapped consumers — enduring an almost 32% annual percentage interest rate on the Macy’s card — haven’t been able to pay off their bills. Macy’s has opted to write off those balances.
“While we have seen an increase in revenues as interest rates have risen, that has been more than offset by higher bad debt assumptions and write-offs,” Macy’s CFO Adrian Mitchell said on a call with Wall Street analysts.
“These bad debt assumptions and write-offs are the result of rising delinquencies, which leads to higher net credit losses over time and contributes to increased bad debt within the portfolio.”
The three major averages were in the green on Tuesday afternoon as signs of softening in the labor market sent stocks higher.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led gains, rising roughly 1.5% after initally starting the day in the red. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) popped more than 1.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial average rose .6% or 205 points.
Cryptocurrencies and stocks with heavy crypto exposure all popped on Tuesday mornings as a court overruled a prior decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission, paving the way for the first Bitcoin ETF in the US.
After the ruling, Grayscale Investments will now be able to launch its Bitcoin ETF, a long awaited moment for the crypto industry. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) jumped more than 5% on the news while Coinbase (COIN), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Marthaon Digital Holdings (MARA) all rose more than 15%. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust rose about 16% on Tuesday morning.
Below is a look at the crypto price action as of 11:15 a.m. ET.
After gains in June and July, consumer confidence slipped in August, new data from The Conference Board showed Tuesday.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index came in at a reading of 106.1, down from 114 in July and below the 116 expected by economists.
“August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board in a release. “Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular.”
Gas prices have risen in recent weeks with a 15% rise in oil prices in July and natural disasters in the US impacting energy markets. Elevated diesel prices are now adding to worries that inflation could re-accelerate amid pressure in energy markets.
The Conference Board’s data also showed consumers growing less optimistic in their assessment of the labor market, which jives with the JOLTS report also released on Tuesday.
“Assessments of the present situation dipped in August on receding optimism around employment conditions: fewer consumers said jobs are ‘plentiful’ and more said jobs are ‘hard to get,'” Peterson said.
“Hard data confirm that employment gains have slowed, overall wage increases are less generous compared to a year ago, and the average number of weeks of unemployment is ticking upward.”
Signs of a labor market cooldown continued on Tuesday as new data showed the US economy ended July with fewest number of job openings since March 2021.
The latest Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, released Tuesday revealed there were 8.8 million jobs open at the end of July, a decrease from the 9.16 million job openings in June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected 9.5 million openings in July.
The report also showed a decline in the quits rate, which is closely watched by economists as elevated quits are seen as a sign of confidence among workers. In July, the quits rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest since Janaury 2021.
Stocks opened roughly flat on Tuesday as investors await labor market data and a reading on consumer confidence later in the morning.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) were teetering on both sides of the flat line minutes after the opening bell on Wall Street. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.1%.
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