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Moderna (MRNA) stock got a boost in late February after the Covid vaccine-maker topped fourth-quarter sales expectations and turned around a surprise profit.
Last year, the vaccine called Spikevax brought in $6.8 billion in sales, compared to $19.3 billion in 2022. That included about $600 million in deferred revenue from a partnership with Gavi, a vaccine alliance that distributes vaccines to the world’s poorest countries.
Moderna also said it achieved 48% market share in the U.S. during the fall of 2023, up from 37% in the year-earlier period. Moderna is rivaling vaccine makers Pfizer (PFE) and Novavax (NVAX).
The company kept its guidance for $4 billion in 2024 sales. Moderna expects to return to growth in 2025 and to break even in 2026. On Feb. 22, the day of its December-quarter earnings release, Moderna stock surged above its 50-day moving average, according to MarketSmith.com.
Now, Moderna is looking ahead to its respiratory syncytial virus vaccine. The company expects to gain Food and Drug Administration approval in the first half of the year, vs. earlier guidance for April. Worries about waning effectiveness, though, have hammered Moderna stock. If approved, the vaccine will launch a year after Pfizer’s and GSK‘s (GSK) shots.
Moderna stock has also benefitted from enthusiasm for its Merck (MRK)-partnered cancer vaccine in patients with melanoma. After about three years, patients who received the cancer vaccine and Merck’s Keytruda had a 49% reduced risk of cancer recurrence or death. The risk of cancer spreading or death was also cut by 62%.
One analyst called the results “transformational.” And Moderna stock surged more than 9% on Dec. 19, the day it released the news.
Chief Executive Stephane Bancel took over responsibility for Moderna’s sales and marketing in 2023. President Stephen Hoge took over pipeline commercial strategy and medical affairs.
So, all in all, is Moderna stock a buy or a sell today?
Moderna’s fourth-quarter sales and earnings beat expectations, though tumbled a respective 45% and 85% year over year. Sales were $2.8 billion, while earnings came in at 55 cents per share. Analysts, though, had expected Moderna to report losses in the fourth quarter.
Moderna stock analysts project a per-share loss of $2.83 for the first quarter, flipping from a year-ago gain of 19 cents. Sales are expected to fall 70% to $558 million.
Moderna stock has a poor IBD Digital Composite Rating of 23 out of a best-possible 99. The Composite Rating is a measure of a stock’s key fundamental and technical measures. So, MRNA stock outranks 23% of all stocks, regardless industry group, on that measurement.
Moderna stock went public at 23 in late 2018. In 2020, shares rocketed more than 434%. The gain was less bullish in 2021, with shares rising 143%. In 2022 and 2023, shares toppled a respective 29% and nearly 45%.
Sales tumbled 64% in 2023, coming in at $6.85 billion. That beat expectations for $6.47 billion, according to FactSet. But Moderna turned in per-share losses of $12.33, reversing from a year-earlier gain of $20.12 a share.
The market for Covid boosters is uncertain. Just 17% of people six months of age and older had gotten one of the updated bivalent boosters from Moderna or Pfizer, as of the CDC’s last update on May 11, 2023.
The company calls for $4 billion in sales in 2024 and for a return to growth in 2025.
By 2028, the company expects to bring in an additional $10 billion to $15 billion in sales of products for oncology, rare and latent diseases. In 2027, the company expects respiratory vaccines to generate $8 billion to $15 billion in sales.
Moderna stock isn’t currently forming a chart pattern. Shares are now below their 200-day line, but surged above their 50-day line on Feb. 22.
MRNA stock has a Relative Strength Rating of 15. The RS Rating is a 1-99 measure of a stock’s 12-month performance. This means Moderna stock ranks in the bottom 15% of all stocks on that metric.
But MRNA stock has a poor EPS Rating of 5, reflecting recent losses.
Keep tabs on IBD Digital for more on stock ratings.
Investors are paying close attention to the bespoke cancer vaccine in partnership with Merck. The shot prompts an immune response against a patient’s own tumor cells.
The cancer vaccine reduced the likelihood cancer would return or patients would die after about three years. A Phase 3 study is already underway with the initial results expected later this decade. But at least one analyst says Moderna could seek a speedy approval in 2025. Further, the companies are running a late-stage study in non-small cell lung cancer patients.
Beyond cancer, Moderna also has a breakthrough designation for its RSV shot. In older adults, the shot proved almost 84% effective against mild disease and more than 82% effective against severe RSV. The company says it has already submitted applications for approval globally.
Moderna also unveiled the results of a potential treatment for propionic acidemia, a rare, genetic condition in which the body can’t break down certain proteins and fats. After a year of treatment, most patients had none or a lower rate of metabolic decompensation associated with the disease. Metabolic decompensation is a series of symptoms that includes vomiting and food refusal.
No, Moderna stock isn’t a buy right now. MRNA stock just retook its 50-day line — a bullish sign. But shares aren’t forming a chart pattern with a clear entry, and dipped below their 200-day moving average in January.
The company’s once eye-popping sales and profits are expected to decline this year. Analysts don’t expect a return to massive pandemic-era growth until 2025. That year, they expect strong sales of vaccines for Covid, RSV and the flu.
To find the best stocks to buy and watch, check out IBD Stock Lists. Make sure to also keep tabs on stocks to buy or sell.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
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2/22/2024 Moderna stock surged Thursday after the firm beat quarterly expectations, including turning around a surprise profit.
2/22/2024 Moderna stock surged Thursday after the firm beat quarterly expectations,…
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