The Financial Express
US Fed Rate Hike Live Updates: Global investors are in for a pivotal week. A key measure of inflation, the US CPI data was released on December 12 and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision was announced on Wednesday, December 13. Both these key events are expected to set the tone for the global stock market and economies in 2024.
The US CPI data for November was made available by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. The FOMC two-day meeting is happening on December 12-13 and the US Fed announced the rate hike decision on December 13.
Today, the Federal Reserve concludes its final meeting of 2023 and has maintained its benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive month.
Aggressive rate increases began in March 2022 and saw the central bank hike rates 11 times, reaching a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Next US Fed FOMC meeting dates are January 30–31.
Markets are cautiously awaiting the 12.30 AM (IST) release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) followed by Chair Powell’s presentation 30 minutes later.
José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers has a message for investors and traders – Investors are anticipating five cuts to the Fed Funds rate next year.
If today’s SEP, or dot plot, portrays expectations among policymakers for only two cuts next year, Powell will have to explain why the Fed believes extended monetary policy tightening is needed. Additionally, markets are likely to respond with increased volatility as corporate earnings expectations and equity valuations currently reflect a very dovish Fed in 2024. In contrast, a dot plot that is consistent with investors’ expectations and a quiet day for climate protestors could give Powell a break and cause equities to surge upward today. Given the strength and velocity of the rally, however, the former case is more likely as further upside in stocks is difficult to envision.
The Federal Reserve policy meeting and, in particular, Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference will be the center of attention.
At a 22-year high, the US interest rate is currently between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Today also sees the publishing of the Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed’s “dot plot” will reveal how it defines its rate policy projection for next year and 2025.
Traders will be watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for signs on when rate cuts can be expected in 2024.
The November CPI was 3.1%, down from 3.2% in October. Higher-for-longer may be the FED’s mantra until inflation falls below the 2% objective.
Only time will tell whether the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points or 125 basis points in 2024, as the market anticipates.
In 2023, the S&P 500 has risen about 20%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has gained nearly 47%.
In the United States, annual inflation declined to 3.1% in November 2023, the lowest amount in five months, from 3.2% in October.
Core inflation remained sticky, with the annual core rate remaining at 4% and the monthly rate rising to 0.3% from 0.2%.
John Lynch, Chief Investment Officer for Comerica Wealth Management: Views
We believe the markets are priced for near-term disappointment.
Equities soared and bond yields plunged on hopes the Fed will cut rates 4-5 times next year. We struggle to embrace the consensus logic calling for 12% profit growth and more than 100 bps in rate cuts in 2024.
Recent data on inflation, employment, and Jerome Powell’s persistent messaging are inconsistent with the market’s optimism.
Consequently, it’s likely the Fed will keep its projection of a 5.1% fed funds rate by yearend 2024, leading to higher market interest rates and a potential test of the S&P 500’s 50-DMA around 4400, which would represent a drop of approximately 5.0% from current levels.
US stocks were little changed on Wednesday as traders brace for the Fed’s monetary policy decision later in the day.
The central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady but all eyes will be on the Fed’s plans for next year, particularly regarding potential rate cuts and their timing.
Meanwhile, both headline and core producer inflation came below forecasts, a day after the CPI report came largely in line with expectations.
After its policy meeting today, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates steady. The disclosure of Fed officials’ rate estimates for the upcoming year will be the most significant news.
The so-called “dot plot” will probably reveal that few, if any, members foresee more rate hikes, while the majority believe the Fed will need to begin reducing rates to boost economic growth as inflation approaches its 2% target next year.
For the majority of next year, many analysts predict that Fed officials will maintain current rate levels. But the financial markets anticipate a rate cut from the Fed as early as spring of next year.
The FOMC meeting is taking place over two days – December 12 and December 13. The live show may be watched on the Federal Reserve YouTube channel.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve policy meeting and particularly on the news conference with Chair Jerome Powell today.
Currently, the interest rate in the US is in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high level.
The Summary of economic projections also gets released today. How the Fed frames its outlook for rate policy ending next year and 2025 via its “dot plot” will be known from there.
Traders will be looking for clues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on when rate cuts can be expected in 2024.
November CPI came in at 3.1% falling from 3.2% in October. Higher-for-longer could remain the theme for the FED until inflation falls below the 2% target.
In 2024, will the Fed cut rates by 50bps or 125bps as the market expects, only time will tell.
S&P 500 has registered nearly 20% gain in 2023, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has gained nearly 47%.
Annual inflation in the United States fell to 3.1% in November 2023, the lowest level in five months, from 3.2% in October.
Core inflation remained sticky, with the annual core rate remaining at 4% and the monthly rate rising to 0.3% from 0.2%.
Globally, the focus is on the conclusion of the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2023 later Wednesday. Investors will look for answers to these concerns:
Will the US Federal Reserve keep rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%? – Highly expected
Will the Fed Chief sound dovish in today’s press commentary?
How long rates will stay at their current 22-year high?
What will the Fed’s dot plot reveal?
When will the Fed pivot?
Any decision to cut rates ahead of its plan should be a worrisome sign for the markets. A recessionary outlook could force the US Fed to start cutting rates earlier than expected as per Dot Plot.
Recently, markets mostly speculated on when the first rate cut might occur, assuming that a rate cut would be beneficial to stocks.
But, here’s the problem. When the cut comes, the Fed has usually gone too far and a recession is on the way (or has already begun).
Therefore, investors might be better off rooting for “higher for longer” right now.
José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers says, “For now, the Fed faces the considerable challenge of maintaining its terminal Fed Funds rate long enough to ensure that it will sustainably dampen inflation while not tipping the economy into recession.”
The FOMC indicated in its most recent policy meeting that tighter financial conditions and incomplete transmission limited the need for further tightening, though cuts were also a long way off.
Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and other policymakers have continued to imply that rate hikes are not out of the question; however, markets do not appear to be buying this argument that further tightening is imminent.
Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist for LPL Financial says, “Although inflation continues to ease, the Fed will still not declare total victory as the stubborn, so-called “sticky” inflation is untangling at a slower than expected pace.
For the Fed, cutting too early and then having to raise rates again soon after would be viewed as a policy error, not fatal, but an error, nonetheless.
The Fed statement in concert with the “dot plot,” coupled with Powell’s comments, should offer markets more clarity and hopefully less confusion over the Fed’s path towards price stability.”
Even though the November jobs report was better than expected and the most recent reading of the consumer price index indicated that core inflation had not decreased over the previous 12 months, the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to determine that monetary policy is sufficiently tight and maintain its benchmark federal funds rate target between 5.25% and 5.50%.
Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance: Views
There are plenty of reasons for stock (and bond) bears to point to inflation that remains too high – core inflation (ex-food and energy) is at 4.0% and nowhere near the target, which is half of that, and because the reading was unchanged, they could argue that inflation is “stuck” and the Fed will need to do a lot more to bring it down to target. However, we don’t share that view – we see a Fed that will just keep rates higher for longer and be patient for inflation to come back down.
To the extent that the market is expecting rate cuts to rally, those investors may be disappointed for some time to come, but we don’t believe the market is rallying in anticipation of cuts; we believe the market is rallying because the economy is expanding at a rapid pace, unemployment is low, consumer spending is high, and the Fed is on hold.
There are always things that can go wrong in the future – both things we can anticipate (e.g. a spike higher in inflation, a recession, etc.) and many others that we can’t (e.g. black swans) – but in the meantime, the market can climb a wall of worry for many months (or even years) and the perma-bears are going to have to adjust to the positive data or be content to miss this rally, which has been going strong for 14 months straight.
LPL Research: Outlook 2024
Stock market: Based on LPL Research’s belief that interest rates won’t spike again and that inflation will continue to come down, LPL Research predicts that stocks are entering a phase where the focus will be on interest rate stability. When rates rise, stocks tend to fall in value, so for the stock market, it’s potentially good news that future rate increases are not expected.
Bond market: The 2023 U.S. economy outperformed expectations, placing treasury yields back to levels last seen over a decade ago and more importantly, back to providing income. Plus, with a potential change in interest rates likely coming in 2024, LPL Research believes bonds are attractive again.
Today, the Summary of Economic Projections will also be released. It will include the Fed members’ forecasts for the economy, whether they anticipate another rate hike, and how long rates will stay at their current 22-year high.
The Fed’s dot plot will be watched by markets for clues about how interest rates will move in the future.
Analysts at ING Think says, “We think the Fed will eventually shift to a more dovish stance, but this may not come until late in the first quarter of 2024.
The US economy continues to perform well for now and the jobs market remains tight, but there is growing evidence that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and the associated tightening of credit conditions are starting to have the desired effect.
We look for 150bp of rate cuts in 2024, with a further 100bp in early 2025.”
Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets, YouHodler says, “If the Fed announces a rate pause on December 13, it is a bullish indicator rather than a bearish one, because it is what the market is expecting from the meeting, and such a decision will mean that everything is following Powell’s plan toward a soft landing. At the same time, the chairman’s rhetoric may adjust market expectations, and may provoke a temporary correction.”
At today’s FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the Fed Funds Rate at the current levels.
Currently, the interest rate in the US is in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high level.
The FOMC meeting is taking place over two days – December 12 and December 13. Fed Chairman Powell will announce the rate hike decision on Wednesday, December 13. The live show may be watched on the Federal Reserve YouTube channel.
While the outcome of the December FOMC meeting is almost known to global investors, analysts are waiting to hear the commentary from Fed Chief Powell.
Just yet, US Fed officials including Chief Powell may not want to ring the victory bell. Will Powell sound dovish remains the million-dollar question from now on.
The final Federal Reserve decision of the year is awaited now. After disappointing US inflation data released yesterday, it is clear that policymakers will be slow to declare victory.
Higher-for-longer could remain the theme for the FED until inflation falls below the 2% target. November CPI came in at 3.1% falling from 3.2% in October.
Stocks in Asia were mixed after mild moves on Wall Street. Shares fell in South Korea but rose in Australia and Japan.
Markets continue to bet Fed officials will be on hold Wednesday, but the latest economic figures bring into question the aggressive pricing of a dovish pivot.
The Summary of economic projections also gets released today. How the Fed frames its outlook for rate policy ending next year and 2025 via its “dot plot” will be known from there.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve policy meeting and particularly on the news conference with Chair Jerome Powell today.
Markets appear to be overly confident of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations. The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the inflation in the US is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Green says: “Inflation remains sticky. The Fed will not want to take the risk of pivoting on policy too soon by cutting rates.
“We believe that the data is still not strong enough for the central bank of the world’s largest economy to commit to reversing its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades – yet the markets seem read to confidently and heavily price-in rate cuts.
So far, there’s no pivot in sight,” adds Green.
In November, the US CPI increased 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in November (SA); up 4.0 percent over the year (NSA).
Stock futures in the United States were slightly higher on Tuesday, with contracts on the three major averages adding about 0.1% as traders awaited the release of the inflation report. In the United States, headline inflation is expected to slow slightly, while the core rate is likely to remain unchanged.
Such figures would strengthen bets that the Fed will hold interest rates steady tomorrow, though all eyes will be on what the Fed plans to do next year, particularly when borrowing costs begin to fall.
Oracle shares were down about 9% in premarket trading after the company’s revenue fell short of expectations. In addition, Alphabet fell 0.9% after losing an antitrust court battle to Epic Games.
According to the Statistics Ministry, India‘s consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation rose to 5.5 percent in November 2023, the fastest rate in three months, due to a surge in food prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print in October was 4.87 percent.
The 10-year US Treasury note yield fell below 4.2% on Tuesday, approaching three-month lows as traders await the key US inflation report, which should provide further clues on the Fed’s plans.
The headline rate of inflation is likely to have slowed again, but the core rate is expected to remain sticky. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep its funds rate unchanged tomorrow and to challenge rate-cut expectations, as the labor market is proving more resilient to high-interest rates than previously anticipated.
The US economy added 200K jobs in November, exceeding market expectations of 180K, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped back to 3.7%.
Vaibhav Shah, Fund Manager, Torus ORO PMS says, “We expect the US Fed to keep the interest rate status quo. Incoming macro data is pointing towards a soft landing inspite of higher interest rates providing some comfort.
Inflation has shown signs of moderation and we think going forward inflation will remain in a range and thus market expects that rate cuts will start as soon as Q1CY2024.
Though the US Fed Chairman has maintained a strict stance that it would be premature of think about rate cuts, the recent market expectation probabilities signal that the US Fed pivot would be very soon.”
After dropping for two straight sessions, gold managed to hold below $1,990 an ounce on Tuesday as investors exercised caution ahead of this week’s major central bank interest rate decisions and a significant US inflation reading. US producer inflation data will be released on Wednesday, and US consumer inflation data will be released later on Tuesday.
Inflation has slowed significantly since reaching a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 as a result of COVID-related product shortages and surges in consumer demand. However, at 3.2% (October Data), it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The Fed raised its key interest rate from near zero early last year to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% (As of today) to help contain rising prices. However, Fed officials have held off on raising interest rates since July, and with inflation and the labor market both cooling, most economists believe the central bank is done raising rates.
Tuesday’s opening of European equities markets was expected to be higher as investors got ready for this week’s key central banks’ interest rate decisions as well as the most recent US inflation data.
Later this week, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, among others, are expected to make decisions about monetary policy and direct the trajectory of interest rates for the markets.
Additionally, today’s investors will evaluate Germany’s ZEW indicator of economic expectations for December.
On Monday, the U.S. stock market witnessed an extraordinary event that has captured the interest of Wall Street investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA closed at its highest level in almost two years, while all three of the major U.S. equity indexes reached new 52-week highs.
However, none of the “Magnificent 7” players closed in green. Rather, they were all heavily negative, except for Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -0.78%, all of the megacap technology stocks finishing at least 1% lower.
The annual rate of inflation in the United States decreased from 3.7% in September to 3.2% in October 2023. The US Core Inflation Rate was the biggest surprise last month. In October 2023, the US annual core consumer price inflation rate—which does not include volatile goods like food and energy—dropped from 4.1% in the previous month to 4%, a two-year low.
November’s CPI is expected to be at 3.1%, the lowest since June. However, the core reading, which the Fed closely monitors, is expected to rise 0.3% from October, up from a 0.2% increase in the previous month, and to remain at 4% year on year.
The United States’ consumer price inflation rate has significantly decreased, from a high of 9.1% year over year in June 2022 to a low of 3% in June 2023. After a strong summer for consumer spending, this slowed in August and September before the annual rate recovered to 3.7% due to growing energy costs and resilience in some of the core (ex-food and energy) components.
The CPI measures how quickly US inflation is changing over time. The prices that consumers pay for goods and services across the entire U.S. economy serve as the basis for this important economic indicator. The inflation rate is the percentage change in the CPI over a given time.
Through 2024, inflation is predicted to continue declining, and Wall Street is placing bets that the Fed will begin lowering interest rates by the middle of the year. This might boost corporate profits even further, which influences stock prices. Usually, a company’s stock value is based on how much profit it makes and how much investors are willing to pay for every $1 of that profit. Since investors tend to look forward, stocks probably already account for projected increases in earnings in 2024.
When interest rates drop, expensive technology stocks also seem more appealing to investors.
Markets, meanwhile, are on a roll. November saw a surge in stocks to their highest level of the year as investors increased their bets that the Fed would stop raising interest rates to combat inflation. Rising interest rates have caused the economy to cool.
S&P 500 has registered nearly 20% gain in 2023, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has gained nearly 47%. With an 8% increase last month, the S&P 500 had one of its greatest November gains in the previous 100 years.
In 2023, inflation began to loosen its hold on Wall Street and the economy, igniting expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve and strong market gains in 2024.
Hello and welcome to our live coverage on US CPI data announcement. Will inflation further cool down remains to be seen. Stay with us as we bring you all the key numbers and what it means for the markets.