Latest surveys conducted Dec. 8-10, 2023, among a representative sample of 5,840 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking registered U.S. voters whom they plan to vote for in 2024’s likely rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. Our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them.
Every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. For our ongoing tracking of the Republican nominating contest, go to our 2024 Republican Primary Tracker.
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Biden trails Trump: Trump, the likeliest Republican presidential nominee for 2024, leads Biden by 2 percentage points (43% to 41%) in our latest national tracking survey, compared with a tie in last week’s update. Biden is trailing Trump because fewer voters from his winning 2020 coalition are coalescing behind his re-election bid: 81% of Biden 2020 voters said they’d vote for him if next year’s election were today, compared with 88% of Trump 2020 voters who said they’d vote for Trump again.
Biden’s popularity at a low: Biden’s net favorability rating — the share of voters with a favorable view of him minus the share with an unfavorable view — is now 14 points underwater — the lowest we’ve measured during the past year. For the past six weeks, Trump has consistently had a higher rating, though he has also remained underwater with the general electorate.
The top issues for 2024: The issue portfolio for next year’s elections echoes that of the 2022 midterm elections. The economy is voters’ top issue, followed by national security and health care. Hot-button issues such as immigration, crime and abortion occupy similar places in voters’ minds as in 2022.
Data points reflect a 3-day moving average of surveys conducted among representative samples of at least 4,000 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
Latest survey conducted Dec. 7-10, 2023, among 2,001 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views.
Latest survey conducted Dec. 7-10, 2023, among 2,001 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
Latest survey conducted Dec. 7-10, 2023, among 2,001 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Latest survey conducted Dec. 7-10, 2023, among 2,001 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative.
Latest survey conducted Dec. 7-10, 2023, among 2,001 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Methodology
The latest national results on the hypothetical general-election matchup of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump reflects surveys conducted Dec. 8-10, 2023, among a representative sample of 5,840 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
Voters who are undecided were not asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among a representative sample of roughly 2,000 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump – Morning Consult
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